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The Great Consumer Shift
Anyone who has hosted a game night over video chat or ordered groceries to be delivered at home for the first time understands how profoundly the COVID-19 crisis has changed our behavior as consumers. But which of these changes will stick?
Recent research by McKinsey and Co. provides a look at what consumers are saying they will continue to value as the coronavirus crisis evolves. The following issues were key:
Flight to online
Digital shopping is here to stay, as US consumers report an intent to shop online even after the COVID-19 crisis. While this shift to online shopping has been nearly universal across all categories, high-income earners and millennials are leading the way in shifting spending online across both essential and nonessential items.
Shock to loyalty
Consumers are switching brands at unprecedented rates. The crisis has prompted a surge of new activities, with an astonishing 75 percent of US consumers trying a new shopping behavior in response to economic pressures, store closings, and changing priorities. This general change in behavior has also been reflected in a shattering of brand loyalties, with 73 percent reporting that they intend to continue to incorporate the new brands into their routine.
Need for hygiene transparency
US consumers have already changed their behavior in response to hygiene concerns. There is strong intention across the United States to continue contactless activities, however, with 79 percent of respondents reporting that they plan to continue or increase their usage of self-checkout after COVID-19.
Back to basics and value
40 percent of US consumers say they have reduced spending in general and expect to continue to cut back on nonessentials specifically...reflecting their profound discomfort about the state of the economy.
Rise of the homebody economy
Americans are spending more of their at-home time on domestic activities, media, and news. The intention to eat at home more even after COVID-19 has reportedly strengthened significantly over the past three months. 73 percent of respondents reported not being currently engaged in out-of-home activities.
As retailers contemplate the changes in consumer behavior, they will need to adjust their strategies and execution to adapt to these new norms.
Bren Smith is a part of a new generation of fishermen focused on ecological redemption. After the cod stocks crashed in his home of Newfoundland in the early ‘90s, he joined the ranks of fishermen working the salmon farms in Northern Canada, where they were promised that aquaculture was the answer to overfishing and unemployment. Smith described how his dreams became ashes in his mouth when he discovered that the salmon farms were the equivalent of industrial pig farms at sea, pumping fish full of antibiotics and food coloring, polluting waterways, and growing livestock that were neither fish nor food. Disillusioned, he kept searching for a way to remain on the water, to make a living but not at the expense of ocean ecosystems. He ended up in Long Island Sound where forward thinking regulators had opened up shell-fishing grounds for the first time in decades to attract young fishermen into a new industry. That began Smith’s 15-year journey into regenerative ocean farming. Shellfish like mussels taught him that we can farm to restore rather than deplete. As farmers, our crops can breathe life back into the oceans while feeding local communities. In terms of sustainability, mussels and other shellfish blow land-based food out of the water. They require zero inputs—no feeds, no fertilizers, no fresh water—making them the most sustainable form of food production on earth. Ocean farming offers the first opportunity in generations to build a food system from the bottom up. In 1979, Jacques Cousteau, the father of ocean conservation, predicted this opportunity: “We must plant the sea...using the ocean as farmers instead of hunters. That is what civilization is all about — farming replacing hunting.” But good food grown for both people and the planet must also be delicious! Smith reports that one of the most enjoyable meals of his life was an afternoon spent with a gaggle of culinary wizards at the home of Patagonia’s Yvon Chouinard, where he tasted literally dozens of different mussel recipes. Smith’s conclusion: The creativity of each dish was proof that, in the right hands, mussels have the potency to be the gateway drug to a new “climate cuisine” that is both delightful and hopeful!
The US restaurant industry attracts millions of patrons each year, and it’s clear that Americans love to go out to eat. The food business is changing, however, due to the growth of restaurant technology and online ordering. These statistics shed some light on this ever-changing industry. Fifty-one percent of Americans now use delivery services to purchase meals from restaurants. Over 25% admit ordering takeout or getting delivery at least once a week and 34% spend an average of $50 when ordering food online. In comparison, 26% reported their typical online food order being close to $25, while 14% stated that they spent upwards of $100. In a recent study, 56% of 1,000 Americans reported that they typically ate out in a restaurant at least 2 to 3 times a week. In the same study, 10% of the participants said that they ate out 4 to 6 times a week, while 6% said they ate at least one meal out every single day. The study also found that respondents who earned an annual salary of $40,000 to $50,000 per year spent the most money eating out at restaurants; on average, spending $117.82 weekly, which equated to 12.25 to 15.31% of their income. As a whole, people demonstrate that they care intensely about the quality of their experience at a restaurant. The percentage of people who research an establishment before visiting is higher in the restaurant business than in any other type of industry! 90% of visitors research a restaurant online before going. While many people might think that the opinion of a professional critic would be more trusted, it turns out that the average restaurant attendee wants to hear from other diners like them. 77% of consumers report preferring to read reviews from customers rather than professional critics. The busy salesperson who only has 25 minutes for lunch and stops in every Tuesday, the mother who routinely comes by for her favorite sandwich, these are the people whose opinions are extremely valuable in the restaurant industry. Approximately 5 to 10% of consumers write reviews, and although this sounds like a small percentage, these opinions are extremely important to other people around the globe. 84% of people report trusting these online reviews as much as they would trust a recommendation from a friend.
Chefs know all about seafood’s fresh flavor and versatility, and they put it on the menu in a variety of ways. Lately, some have been offering a single platter of little bits of fish and shellfish prepared like the meats on a charcuterie board. The dish can be called seafood charcuterie or the more trendy label, “seacuterie.” Whatever the name, these innovative preparations please chefs and customers alike. They encourage innovation in the kitchen, and they fit right in with customers’ love of snacking and sharing food, especially as a prelude to the meal. Using fish and shellfish in place of cured pork and other meats is not a new concept. As far back as 1988, Chef David Burke created salmon pastrami and served it in his Park Avenue Café in Brooklyn, N.Y. Over the years, seacuterie has appeared in various forms on menus around the country. Recently, though, the concept seems to be gaining in popularity. Chefs are creating pastramis, rillettes, terrines and other preparations from seafood and presenting them on wooden boards or plates or platters. These boards can include all seafood or seafood paired with traditional charcuterie items. Cheeses and jams, however, are usually not included with seafood charcuterie. Mustard and aioli are likely to take their place. Chef Aaron Black started serving traditional charcuterie 20 years ago when he was cooking in his native Ohio. Today, as chef de cuisine at PB Catch Seafood + Bar in Palm Beach, Fla., he puts a seafood spin on it. An advocate of boards made solely of seafood, he says: “Seacuterie is a natural progression from my charcuterie program back then. Also, it fits our concept of clean, sustainable seafood.” In coastal cities, chefs have myriad fish and seafood options for charcuterie. At The Macintosh in Charleston, S.C., Chef/Partner Jeremiah Bacon uses everything in season to create numerous special charcuterie items. Sometimes they are used on a plate that is solely fish, but more often seafood appears alongside meats and other traditional charcuterie items. Chefs agree that seacuterie isn’t a particular strain on the kitchen, and it’s actually a relatively easy sell. “Once the first one is brought into the dining room, we get more orders,” Black says. “This program gives our guests a play on flavors to add to their dining experience, and it creates a learning environment for the kitchen staff by allowing them to master both traditional and unique techniques.”
Plant-based Seafood Making Big Waves on Modern Menus
The United States is a huge country, one that stretches from sea to shining sea, with an incredible bounty of fresh seafood to be found not only on the East and West Coasts, but the Gulf coast as well. The U.S. is a food paradise, from ribs, sausage, and brisket in Montgomery, Alabama to glamorous celebrity burger joints in Las Vegas. Vegetarians, we've even got you covered. But, according to The Daily Meal, if you are hankering for fresh seafood and wondering which state is home to the most amazing restaurants for seafood, the unequivocal answer is said to be…California! From San Diego in the south to Crescent City up north, California’s coastline is home to a truly astounding array of seafood. Down south you’ll find spot prawns, swordfish, rock crab, rockfish, and mackerel; in the Santa Barbara Channel you’ll find spider crab, sea urchin, and ridgeback shrimp; along the Central Coast you’ll find Dungeness crab, albacore tuna, white seabass, abalone, and oysters; and up north there’s king salmon, sole, pink shrimp, hake, and sea urchin. The Monterey Bay is also home to a wide variety of marine life. Not only are California’s waters chock-full of amazing seafood, there are also many amazing restaurants highlighting the bounty. What is surprising about California is that it might just have better seafood than you can get in Maine, Alaska, Hawaii, or any other state well-known for seafood dishes. What makes California so special? What does it have that other states do not? What kind of culinary inspiration can we take from the Golden State? Variety like you've never seen. Because California has so much coastline, over 840 miles of coastline, it is home to an impressive array of seafood, something smaller states like Massachusetts miss out on. When you plan a dinner on the waterfront in California, you should be ready to see a menu full of unique seafood choices. And cities like San Francisco, Malibu, Los Angeles, and Santa Barbara sit right by the water, attracting tons of seafood and tourists. Whether it’s watching the sunset over a dock or enjoying the coastal breeze from the ocean, waterfront restaurants offer guests a memorable experience. Not only will your taste buds have something to enjoy, but so will your eyes!
Measurements of American travel sentiment continue to illustrate the dichotomy in the American psyche of the seriousness of the pandemic situation and the love for travel. Even with continued strong concern for COVID safety, societal exhaustion with the pandemic and a cultural propensity for optimism have resulted in increasing excitement for travel. Nearly 80% of American travelers report having trips currently planned in 2022, while over 70% have engaged in travel planning and/or dreaming in the past week alone, according to Destination Analysts . Likewise, Tripadvisor reported finding that 71% of Americans are planning to travel for leisure in 2022, which is up 8% compared to 2019. “Travelers are quickly adapting to local public health conditions, with cleanliness and safety remaining important factors in their planning.” 70% of American respondents reported that cleanliness was an important factor when considering different hospitality businesses while traveling and that it will continue to be a priority even once coronavirus cases drop. Tripadvisor found that worldwide, domestic trips are the most popular choice for travelers this year. Americans report being the most excited about taking family trips and creating romantic getaways. They are most interested in enjoying scenic beauty, warm weather outdoor activities, road trips, dining in regional restaurants, visiting historical sites, and enjoying street food during their travels. All of this makes Santa Barbara, California, often called the “American Riviera,” the ideal 2022 travel destination. Sandwiched between the Pacific Coast and the mountains of the Santa Ynez Valley, with sky so blue it’s almost purple, beaches lined with palm trees, and the lush, green foothills dotted with red tile roofs, it is the quintessential beach town. Visitors can relax on the beach, stroll through the city’s eclectic shops and boutiques, or figure out which winery they’re going to try first. There is an unbeatable food and wine scene with hundreds of restaurants to choose from, as well as the opportunity to watch humpback whales leap from the ocean, or explore miles of scenic hiking trails. From total relaxation to thrilling adventures, Santa Barabara offers the vacation traveler plenty of activities and attractions to create their “dream vacation”. And, as Tripadvisor research discovered, despite the blows dealt to the travel industry by the coronavirus pandemic in 2020 and 2021, eager travelers across America are packed and ready for 2022! And, these resurgent vacationers have new goals in mind – to have rich, unforgettable experiences - what’s being called the “Greatest of All Trips” mindset.
When you bring together 1,400 opinionated restaurant leaders for a three-day groupthink, the first in 32 months, you’re sure to get an earful about the industry’s challenges and opportunities. The flow of ideas at this year’s Restaurant Leadership Conference was powerfully driven by what was described as pent-up demand for peer-to-peer networking. Supply-chain problems were as likely to arise in presentations and casual conversations as the labor shortage and galloping inflation. The consensus seemed to be that to-go packaging is the hardest staple at the moment to secure. But attendees also complained about periodic shortages of just about every food ingredient, with special dismay reserved for the challenge of lining up sufficient supplies of poultry products. When attendees ventured out for lunch or dinner at one of the restaurants that abound in Scottsdale, they got a close-up view of how those shortages can frustrate customers. It was not unusual for servers to caution patrons while taking their orders that they’d have to see if the requested item was in stock. At the airport used by most attendees traveling by plane, full-service places posted menus with all the missing items blacked out. The bills of fare looked like a checkerboard! Joe Pawlak, managing principal for Technomic, targeted shortages as a key reason for the sharp inflationary spike restaurateurs are seeing in the cost of their supplies. The price of cooking oil is up 39% year over year, while beef costs have climbed 41% and the wholesale price of chicken has spiked by 36%. Customers, however, are not balking at higher prices—at least for now. Despite a nearly 40-year high in menu price inflation, consumers are still willing to pay what they’re charging. Pawlak and other presenters said that consumers have been willing to accept those increases because their pent-up demand for restaurant meals is overriding their usual price sensitivity. Indeed, according to Robin Robison, COO of Modern Market and Lemonade parent Modern Restaurant Concepts, that willingness to pay more is the industry’s best defense against galloping inflation. But speakers warned that a day of reckoning may be coming. “Prices are getting higher and higher,” Pawlak said. “At what point does the consumer balk?”
America’s first-ever licensed cannabis restaurant opened in West Hollywood, California in 2019 with significant fanfare. Lowell Cafe in West Hollywood was America’s first licensed cannabis consumption lounge and restaurant where diners can eat a meal while consuming cannabis or eat cannabis-infused edibles on the premises. This opening represented a first in the hospitality industry. In an awkward workaround, Lowell Cafe is restricted by state California law that allows the consumption of edibles produced by an outside source, but is prohibited from serving any cannabis-infused food made on the premises. Lowell Cafe also cannot sell alcohol on the premises, so it serves only juice, coffee, tea, Boylan’s soda, and milkshakes. Milkshake mix-ins include things like Cinnamon Toast Crunch, house made caramel corn, toffee, or candied pecans. Finally, for dessert diners can have scoops of McConnell’s ice cream, a Mexican chocolate sundae, or a Fruity Pebbles cheesecake. And then there’s the actual cannabis. Lowell Cafe is also a dispensary that sells everything from vaporizer pens, cannabis oil, concentrated cannabis, cannabis beverages, bongs, and Lowell Farms’ own pre-rolled joints. “Flower hosts” will deliver cannabis products just like they’re dropping off a bottle of wine, but instead of popping a cork will roll a joint right at the table. A $20 “toke-age” fee is for those who wish to bring their own cannabis. Customers will receive two separate checks if ordering food and cannabis. Diners can use any payment method for food, but will have to pay cash for any cannabis purchases. Customers are not allowed to leave Lowell with cannabis purchased on-site. Lowell Cafe’s owners insist that smoky air will not be a problem because they installed a robust air-filtration system, which is also required by law. The ventilation actually sucks air from the consumption areas and filters it through a charcoal scrubbing system before releasing it. The system uses vents, ducts, filters, fans, and motors similar to the systems used in casinos and chemical labs, according to co-owner Sean Black. It was actually a bit of a miracle when Lowell Cafe opened in 2019, requirng first-ever changes to state and local laws. But in just the one year, seven more consumption lounges had opened within West Hollywood’s city limits. Colorado, another state with legal recreational cannabis, also recently opened the legislative door for cannabis lounge concepts, leaving many in the industry watching how operators like those behind Lowell Café do it. Brady is first to admit it’s a whole new world, with many challenges to overcome.
Beyond Meat and Impossible Burger demonstrated the potential for plant-based proteins. Now tomatoes are coming for tuna. When a tuna marketing executive took a bite of the dehydrated tomato seasoned with olive oil, algae extract, spices, and soy sauce early last year, he was shaken. “This is going to be a problem for us,” he said. At least that’s how Ida Speyer, co-founder and chief executive officer of Mimic Seafood, recalls it, designating it the highest praise she could have imagined for the delicate slice of tuna that—despite what the marketing executive’s taste buds indicated—contained no tuna at all. The Madrid-based startup’s Tunato product, fabricated from a specialty tomato variety grown in southern Spain that resembles sliced sushi-grade tuna in shape and size, is part of a growing class of food innovations fighting for the last empty shelf in the booming plant-based protein market: Seafood. Faux fish, which Speyer concedes “maybe 5 or 10 years ago would have seemed too far out, too different, or only something for vegans,” is just a tiny fraction of the alternative protein market, dwarfed by the more mature faux meat and alt-dairy sectors. Spain’s Mimic is banking on that. Although it halted distribution of its tomato-based tuna when Covid-19 lockdowns hit, it plans to resume sales in several Spanish cities by the end of the year, eventually expanding into Denmark. The startup has visions of becoming “the Oatly of seafood,” giving the traditional protein market a run for its money as nut and oat milks did for cow’s milk. “I think if the dairy industry had known 10 to 15 years ago what was coming, they would have prepared differently. The seafood industry can actually in a way benefit from what we have seen with dairy and beef, because the change will come,” Speyer says of her expectation that more consumers will move away from traditional seafood. Jen Lamy, manager of The Good Food Institute says, “ If plant-based seafood maintains its growth rate, it can catch up with fake meat’s share of the conventional market within the next decade. The technology is “not quite there yet,” she says, but the sector’s making progress. “If you look at photos of products from now vs. three years ago, it’s totally a different game.” BOTTOM LINE - The plant-based fish market is a drop in the bucket compared with that of faux meat, but it’s growing fast as consumers try to minimize their impact on the oceans.
